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Newcastle welcome Liverpool to St James’ Park this evening for a fixture of gargantuan importance in the context of the Premier League title race.
Rafa Benitez has carried the Magpies to safety once again this season, with Ayoze Perez finding his goal scoring touch in tandem with Miguel Almiron’s arrival January.
Jurgen Klopp and his side will be feeling wounded after suffering an unfortunate 3-0 defeat against Barcelona in midweek, and the realisation that they are on the brink in the Champions League adds an extra layer of importance to tonight’s clash.
Liverpool simply have to win to keep the pressure on Manchester City and failure to do so could prove decisive, leaving them trophyless despite enjoying a scintillating campaign.
Ahead of the game we’ve delved into the factors which could shape the result, including the head-to-head record, a key midfield battle and predicted starting XI’s.
What History Tells Us
Newcastle boast an eyecatching home record against tonight’s visitors. History suggests that the hosts are the more dominant team on this ground, with a win percentage of 43.5% at St James’ Park markedly better than Liverpool’s 30.4%.
Overall Klopp’s men are considerably more successful in the head-to-head but home advantage is clearly a factor which significantly plays into Benitez’s hands.
146 goals have flown into the net from the 47 times these two sides have met since the Premier League’s inception. At a historic average of more than 3 goals a game, we can expect plenty of goalmouth action this evening.
Key Battle
It’s no secret that Liverpool’s array of pulsating midfield options have been a major reason behind the club’s title challenge this season.
Fabinho took time to settle into the starting XI but he has established himself as a solid midfield metronome in recent months, breaking up play in front of the defence and offering creative spark from deep.
The key to preventing Liverpool from completely dictating the game lies within Newcastle’s ability to deprive him of space in central areas, and that responsibility may well fall on Isaac Hayden’s shoulders.
Like Fabinho, Hayden has been forced to bide his time this season but he has excelled since earning Benitez’s trust.
His high-energy approach has seen him complete more tackles, interceptions, key passes, and aerial duels than the Brazilian this season in three less appearances.
Don’t be surprised if these two are engaged in a potentially result-defining midfield battle.
Ref in Focus
Andre Marriner is the man in the middle and he will be making his 26th Premier League appearance of the season.
If his record this season is anything to go by, we should expect a free-flowing game.
The experienced 48-year-old ranks in 17th for fouls per game, fouls per tackle and penalties per game from of the 18 referees who have taken charge of a Premier League game this season, per Whoscored.
His home win bias also stands at 40% which, combined with Newcastle’s impressive home record against Liverpool, suggests the omens are giving the underdogs a fighting chance.
Team News
The energy provided by Sean Longstaff in midfield and the zip and verve of Miguel Almiron will both be sorely missed by Newcastle.
But they have been boosted by the news that both Jamaal Lascelles and Ayoze Perez are fit to play, and both players will presumably take their place in the starting XI after recovering from their respective struggles.
The five at the back formation which has treated Newcastle so well this season should provide Martin Dubravka with a solid wall to protect his goal, suffocating the likes of Mo Salah and Sadio Mane in their bid to find space inside the channels.
At the other end Salomon Rondon will be expected to stick the ball to his foot when the hosts embark on a counter-attack.
Naby Keita has been ruled out after being forced off in midweek with a groin injury.
That should pave the way for Jordan Henderson to take his place from the start while Roberto Firmino will almost certainly return at centre-forward if he passes a late fitness test, pushing Georginio Wijnaldum back into midfield after a brief flirt with the centre-forward berth.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is likely to replace Joe Gomez at full-back to offer greater width and penetration in the final-third, as Klopp makes three changes to the side that were humbled in Catalonia this week.